Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #285 of 1,000

P0123

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 26,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 739

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 261

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 43Deviation -R 218

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 261. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 146

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 469 to R 361
Finished ahead: 213 / 1,000 (21,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #277 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,29% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.283
Mean bets / session: 2.686
Loss multiplier: 1.0273×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 46,7% / 43,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Lottery / JackpotR 1204 wagers · RTP 50,00%

BlackjackR 903 wagers · RTP 100,00%

American RouletteR 582 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 532 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 301 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 301 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 301 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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