Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #299 of 1,000

P0125

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 32,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 690

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 310

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 43Deviation -R 267

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 310. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 224

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 534 to R 673
Finished ahead: 196 / 1,000 (19,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #293 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,46% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.425
Mean bets / session: 1.536
Loss multiplier: 1.0083×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 31,1% / 32,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1824 wagers · RTP 24,73%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1353 wagers · RTP 135,95%

BaccaratR 1323 wagers · RTP 127,05%

Three-Reel SlotR 912 wagers · RTP 50,00%

BlackjackR 902 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 862 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 862 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 401 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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