Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #268 of 1,000

P0126

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 47,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 829

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 172

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 32Deviation -R 140

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 172. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 151

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 428 to R 325
Finished ahead: 235 / 1,000 (23,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #280 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,38% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.283
Mean bets / session: 1.374
Loss multiplier: 1.0181×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 47,3% / 38,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1133 wagers · RTP 163,72%

BaccaratR 752 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 752 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 732 wagers · RTP 23,97%

Lottery / JackpotR 381 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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