Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #227 of 1,000

P0129

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 76,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 001

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 1

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 35Deviation R 36

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 1. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 152

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 371 to R 264
Finished ahead: 237 / 1,000 (23,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #275 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,42% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.368
Mean bets / session: 1.14
Loss multiplier: 1.0039×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 35,5% / 40,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 1263 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1243 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 832 wagers · RTP 148,19%

European RouletteR 421 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 421 wagers · RTP 500,00%

CrashR 411 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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