Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #158 of 1,000

P0132

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 93,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 590

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 590

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 77Deviation R 666

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 590. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 264

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 680 to R 878
Finished ahead: 208 / 1,000 (20,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #306 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,41% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.477
Mean bets / session: 2.079
Loss multiplier: 1.004×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 35,6% / 57,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 48911 wagers · RTP 87,80%

American RouletteR 2255 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1784 wagers · RTP 50,56%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1764 wagers · RTP 109,51%

European RouletteR 1333 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 862 wagers · RTP 1 504,07%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 862 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 451 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 451 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Craps / DiceR 431 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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