Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #273 of 1,000

P0136

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 31,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 803

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 197

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 13Deviation -R 184

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 197. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 140

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 305 to R 181
Finished ahead: 158 / 1,000 (15,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #275 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,28% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.518
Mean bets / session: 1.127
Loss multiplier: 1.008×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 47,2% / 30,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 1114 wagers · RTP 49,19%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 843 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 843 wagers · RTP 100,00%

CrashR 562 wagers · RTP 62,50%

American RouletteR 281 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 281 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 281 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 281 wagers · RTP 171,54%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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