Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #276 of 1,000

P0138

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 56,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 795

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 205

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 25Deviation -R 180

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 205. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 246

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 672 to R 699
Finished ahead: 210 / 1,000 (21,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #302 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,51% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.329
Mean bets / session: 2.488
Loss multiplier: 1.0013×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 33,8% / 44,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 1022 wagers · RTP 70,81%

Three-Reel SlotR 1002 wagers · RTP 25,00%

American RouletteR 511 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 501 wagers · RTP 200,00%

European RouletteR 491 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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