Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #229 of 1,000

P0142

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 78,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 993

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 11Deviation R 3

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 176

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 482 to R 542
Finished ahead: 214 / 1,000 (21,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #284 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,32% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.3
Mean bets / session: 2.52
Loss multiplier: 1.0167×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 32,7% / 44,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 983 wagers · RTP 134,69%

Virtual Sports BettingR 602 wagers · RTP 121,35%

CrashR 602 wagers · RTP 66,67%

European RouletteR 321 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 321 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 301 wagers · RTP 200,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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