Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #152 of 1,000

P0144

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 97,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 707

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 707

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 54Deviation R 762

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 707. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 227

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 587 to R 401
Finished ahead: 204 / 1,000 (20,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #294 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,43% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.596
Mean bets / session: 1.463
Loss multiplier: 1.0139×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 35,6% / 32,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 46511 wagers · RTP 134,85%

Lottery / JackpotR 1484 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 1163 wagers · RTP 836,21%

CrashR 902 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 822 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 792 wagers · RTP 206,49%

BlackjackR 772 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 431 wagers · RTP 200,00%

American RouletteR 391 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 381 wagers · RTP 100,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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