Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #289 of 1,000

P0147

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 60,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 723

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 277

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 64Deviation -R 213

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 277. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 367

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 872 to R 530
Finished ahead: 180 / 1,000 (18,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #325 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,51% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.369
Mean bets / session: 2.91
Loss multiplier: 1.0133×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 48,4% / 45,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 4008 wagers · RTP 101,50%

Lottery / JackpotR 2034 wagers · RTP 49,26%

BaccaratR 1393 wagers · RTP 195,00%

European RouletteR 1022 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 902 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 822 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 511 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 501 wagers · RTP 50,00%

American RouletteR 441 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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