Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #266 of 1,000

P0149

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 46,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 837

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 163

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 44Deviation -R 119

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 163. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 147

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 404 to R 331
Finished ahead: 219 / 1,000 (21,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #275 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,30% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.285
Mean bets / session: 2.433
Loss multiplier: 1.0188×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 40,5% / 40,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 1796 wagers · RTP 132,96%

Lottery / JackpotR 1786 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 893 wagers · RTP 101,12%

CrashR 301 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 301 wagers · RTP 50,00%

BlackjackR 291 wagers · RTP 100,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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