Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #258 of 1,000

P0152

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 57,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 861

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 140

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 32Deviation -R 107

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 140. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 170

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 390 to R 432
Finished ahead: 203 / 1,000 (20,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #280 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,25% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.578
Mean bets / session: 1.694
Loss multiplier: 1.0258×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 46,2% / 46,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 1677 wagers · RTP 96,11%

Lottery / JackpotR 1145 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 482 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 482 wagers · RTP 100,00%

CrashR 462 wagers · RTP 260,87%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 452 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 241 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 241 wagers · RTP 200,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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