Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #269 of 1,000

P0153

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 39,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 826

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 174

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 28Deviation -R 146

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 174. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 139

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 363 to R 374
Finished ahead: 213 / 1,000 (21,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #274 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,30% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.357
Mean bets / session: 1.905
Loss multiplier: 1.0004×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 38,2% / 39,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 1184 wagers · RTP 73,73%

Lottery / JackpotR 1164 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 291 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 291 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 271 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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