Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #321 of 1,000

P0154

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 57,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 588

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 412

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 106Deviation -R 306

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 412. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 507

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 1 153 to R 1 166
Finished ahead: 201 / 1,000 (20,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #356 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,57% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.607
Mean bets / session: 2.371
Loss multiplier: 1.026×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 34,0% / 31,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 60911 wagers · RTP 142,81%

BlackjackR 3887 wagers · RTP 101,29%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2835 wagers · RTP 93,87%

Lottery / JackpotR 2264 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 1703 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 1683 wagers · RTP 138,10%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1653 wagers · RTP 32,73%

American RouletteR 1152 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1102 wagers · RTP 105,45%

European RouletteR 1082 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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