Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #280 of 1,000

P0158

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 50,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 776

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 224

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 57Deviation -R 168

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 224. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 227

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 550 to R 385
Finished ahead: 185 / 1,000 (18,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #295 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,42% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.35
Mean bets / session: 2.102
Loss multiplier: 1.001×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 37,6% / 56,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Lottery / JackpotR 2075 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 1464 wagers · RTP 195,00%

American RouletteR 832 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 822 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 732 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 411 wagers · RTP 200,00%

European RouletteR 411 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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