Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #278 of 1,000

P0162

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 65,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 787

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 213

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 77Deviation -R 136

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 213. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 397

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 905 to R 827
Finished ahead: 214 / 1,000 (21,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #334 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,48% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.515
Mean bets / session: 2.592
Loss multiplier: 1.0145×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 47,8% / 38,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 65714 wagers · RTP 84,89%

American RouletteR 45710 wagers · RTP 117,07%

BlackjackR 1924 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1413 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 1403 wagers · RTP 209,82%

Craps / DiceR 932 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 922 wagers · RTP 23,91%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 902 wagers · RTP 54,44%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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