Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #238 of 1,000

P0164

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 71,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 941

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 59

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 59Deviation R 0

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 59. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 151

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 417 to R 510
Finished ahead: 205 / 1,000 (20,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #277 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,30% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.399
Mean bets / session: 2.18
Loss multiplier: 1.0105×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 32,5% / 54,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 27810 wagers · RTP 84,08%

Lottery / JackpotR 2017 wagers · RTP 84,58%

Three-Reel SlotR 1375 wagers · RTP 133,94%

BlackjackR 883 wagers · RTP 65,91%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 853 wagers · RTP 30,59%

European RouletteR 853 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 291 wagers · RTP 500,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 251 wagers · RTP 212,36%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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