Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #380 of 1,000

P0168

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 2,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 297

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 703

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 114Deviation -R 589

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 703. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 298

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 646 to R 544
Finished ahead: 165 / 1,000 (16,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #311 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,48% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.583
Mean bets / session: 1.491
Loss multiplier: 1.0266×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 48,9% / 41,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Lottery / JackpotR 4249 wagers · RTP 22,64%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1423 wagers · RTP 200,00%

BaccaratR 1423 wagers · RTP 65,92%

American RouletteR 1413 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 1393 wagers · RTP 105,22%

Craps / DiceR 972 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 972 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 962 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 451 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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