Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #265 of 1,000

P0170

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 69,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 843

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 157

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 82Deviation -R 75

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 157. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 286

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 600 to R 346
Finished ahead: 163 / 1,000 (16,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #309 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,38% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.493
Mean bets / session: 1.81
Loss multiplier: 1.004×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 35,6% / 36,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Lottery / JackpotR 2818 wagers · RTP 23,49%

BaccaratR 1815 wagers · RTP 77,35%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1444 wagers · RTP 193,44%

American RouletteR 1093 wagers · RTP 101,83%

BlackjackR 1093 wagers · RTP 132,11%

European RouletteR 742 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 732 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 371 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 371 wagers · RTP 200,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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