Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #189 of 1,000

P0172

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 96,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 226

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 226

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 21Deviation R 248

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 226. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 79

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 220 to R 197
Finished ahead: 247 / 1,000 (24,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #259 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,20% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.41
Mean bets / session: 1.323
Loss multiplier: 1.0248×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 35,2% / 47,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 603 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 593 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 593 wagers · RTP 135,59%

American RouletteR 593 wagers · RTP 610,17%

Three-Reel SlotR 201 wagers · RTP 50,00%

BlackjackR 201 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 201 wagers · RTP 160,65%

Craps / DiceR 191 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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