Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #173 of 1,000

P0173

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 93,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 369

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 369

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 92Deviation R 461

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 369. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 318

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 793 to R 557
Finished ahead: 191 / 1,000 (19,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #319 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,49% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.438
Mean bets / session: 2.179
Loss multiplier: 1.0017×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 44,3% / 37,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 2425 wagers · RTP 40,08%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1994 wagers · RTP 211,85%

BlackjackR 1944 wagers · RTP 101,03%

Lottery / JackpotR 1924 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 1473 wagers · RTP 164,63%

CrashR 1463 wagers · RTP 363,87%

American RouletteR 1443 wagers · RTP 102,08%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 972 wagers · RTP 48,45%

Craps / DiceR 481 wagers · RTP 200,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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