Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #263 of 1,000

P0177

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 49,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 848

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 152

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 49Deviation -R 103

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 152. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 147

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 433 to R 302
Finished ahead: 190 / 1,000 (19,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #276 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,39% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.295
Mean bets / session: 1.992
Loss multiplier: 1.0055×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 31,7% / 30,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 2657 wagers · RTP 114,72%

BaccaratR 1875 wagers · RTP 117,78%

Lottery / JackpotR 1504 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1484 wagers · RTP 125,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 762 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 381 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 371 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 361 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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