Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #291 of 1,000

P0178

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 48,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 715

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 285

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 77Deviation -R 209

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 285. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 278

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 687 to R 550
Finished ahead: 179 / 1,000 (17,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #307 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,44% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.332
Mean bets / session: 2.864
Loss multiplier: 1.0122×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 40,8% / 37,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Lottery / JackpotR 2917 wagers · RTP 30,24%

BaccaratR 1293 wagers · RTP 165,54%

CrashR 1283 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 882 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 882 wagers · RTP 100,00%

American RouletteR 832 wagers · RTP 159,04%

European RouletteR 441 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 441 wagers · RTP 200,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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