Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #375 of 1,000

P0183

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 21,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 336

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 664

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 137Deviation -R 527

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 664. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 401

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 944 to R 743
Finished ahead: 173 / 1,000 (17,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #337 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,58% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.383
Mean bets / session: 2.72
Loss multiplier: 1.0179×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 43,9% / 37,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Lottery / JackpotR 56410 wagers · RTP 19,86%

BlackjackR 1733 wagers · RTP 67,05%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1132 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 1122 wagers · RTP 63,62%

Three-Reel SlotR 591 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Craps / DiceR 581 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 581 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 571 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 561 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 561 wagers · RTP 195,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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