Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #224 of 1,000

P0186

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 84,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 007

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 7

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 25Deviation R 32

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 7. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 182

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 401 to R 227
Finished ahead: 177 / 1,000 (17,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #282 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,38% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.483
Mean bets / session: 1.045
Loss multiplier: 1.0168×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 32,9% / 38,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 1083 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 762 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 752 wagers · RTP 253,33%

European RouletteR 381 wagers · RTP 300,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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