Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #326 of 1,000

P0187

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 40,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 581

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 419

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 69Deviation -R 351

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 419. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 333

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 797 to R 776
Finished ahead: 188 / 1,000 (18,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #321 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,52% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.61
Mean bets / session: 1.86
Loss multiplier: 1.0255×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 36,9% / 41,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 2565 wagers · RTP 147,96%

CrashR 2044 wagers · RTP 31,86%

Craps / DiceR 2034 wagers · RTP 99,51%

BaccaratR 1543 wagers · RTP 131,69%

Lottery / JackpotR 1513 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1493 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 511 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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