Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #279 of 1,000

P0189

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 43,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 787

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 213

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 19Deviation -R 194

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 213. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 173

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 510 to R 500
Finished ahead: 242 / 1,000 (24,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #283 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,53% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.267
Mean bets / session: 1.631
Loss multiplier: 1.0271×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 45,4% / 46,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 2114 wagers · RTP 101,42%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1613 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1002 wagers · RTP 50,00%

European RouletteR 551 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 501 wagers · RTP 200,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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