Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #239 of 1,000

P0190

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 78,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 938

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 62

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 74Deviation R 12

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 62. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 245

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 561 to R 315
Finished ahead: 162 / 1,000 (16,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #297 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,44% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.615
Mean bets / session: 1.042
Loss multiplier: 1.0277×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 30,2% / 59,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Lottery / JackpotR 2586 wagers · RTP 34,11%

BlackjackR 1664 wagers · RTP 150,60%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1243 wagers · RTP 32,26%

Craps / DiceR 852 wagers · RTP 96,47%

BaccaratR 451 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 411 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 391 wagers · RTP 164,08%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies