Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #230 of 1,000

P0191

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 72,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 989

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 11

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 20Deviation R 9

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 11. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 76

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 226 to R 293
Finished ahead: 246 / 1,000 (24,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #260 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,25% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.39
Mean bets / session: 1.171
Loss multiplier: 1.0252×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 49,7% / 33,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Lottery / JackpotR 763 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 723 wagers · RTP 200,00%

BlackjackR 261 wagers · RTP 250,00%

Craps / DiceR 251 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 231 wagers · RTP 200,00%

European RouletteR 231 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 211 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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