Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #167 of 1,000

P0193

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 97,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 460

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 460

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 37Deviation R 497

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 460. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 114

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 312 to R 191
Finished ahead: 207 / 1,000 (20,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #269 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,25% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.464
Mean bets / session: 1.676
Loss multiplier: 1.0055×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 32,7% / 41,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 1406 wagers · RTP 101,43%

Lottery / JackpotR 1155 wagers · RTP 40,00%

CrashR 743 wagers · RTP 271,96%

Three-Reel SlotR 733 wagers · RTP 65,75%

European RouletteR 482 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 482 wagers · RTP 1 081,25%

BlackjackR 241 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 241 wagers · RTP 300,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 221 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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