Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #136 of 1,000

P0194

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 97,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 11 160

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 1 160

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 76Deviation R 1 236

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 1 160. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 267

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 620 to R 571
Finished ahead: 163 / 1,000 (16,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #307 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,36% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.416
Mean bets / session: 2.465
Loss multiplier: 1.0229×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 37,0% / 49,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 3279 wagers · RTP 89,71%

Lottery / JackpotR 2246 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 2216 wagers · RTP 238,01%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1093 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 1083 wagers · RTP 133,33%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1073 wagers · RTP 172,90%

European RouletteR 762 wagers · RTP 97,37%

Three-Reel SlotR 371 wagers · RTP 3 100,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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