Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #163 of 1,000

P0197

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 95,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 502

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 502

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 46Deviation R 547

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 502. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 191

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 571 to R 491
Finished ahead: 213 / 1,000 (21,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #288 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,59% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.339
Mean bets / session: 1.33
Loss multiplier: 1.0071×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 49,1% / 59,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 2404 wagers · RTP 101,67%

Lottery / JackpotR 1783 wagers · RTP 395,51%

BaccaratR 1192 wagers · RTP 99,16%

BlackjackR 1182 wagers · RTP 125,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 571 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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