Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #339 of 1,000

P0198

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 15,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 517

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 483

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 86Deviation -R 397

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 483. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 241

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 645 to R 478
Finished ahead: 241 / 1,000 (24,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #298 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,30% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.362
Mean bets / session: 2.906
Loss multiplier: 1.0112×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 47,9% / 50,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 28310 wagers · RTP 88,03%

CrashR 1726 wagers · RTP 54,07%

BaccaratR 1726 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1144 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 873 wagers · RTP 66,67%

Three-Reel SlotR 582 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 562 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 291 wagers · RTP 500,00%

BlackjackR 291 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 281 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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