Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #149 of 1,000

P0199

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 96,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 745

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 745

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 30Deviation R 776

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 745. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 151

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 402 to R 448
Finished ahead: 245 / 1,000 (24,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #277 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,34% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.481
Mean bets / session: 1.405
Loss multiplier: 1.0153×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 37,7% / 36,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 1605 wagers · RTP 71,09%

BlackjackR 993 wagers · RTP 148,99%

BaccaratR 943 wagers · RTP 140,43%

European RouletteR 692 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 632 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 632 wagers · RTP 1 000,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 542 wagers · RTP 600,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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