Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #202 of 1,000

P0200

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 88,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 140

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 140

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 65Deviation R 205

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 140. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 172

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 441 to R 434
Finished ahead: 192 / 1,000 (19,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #282 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,55% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.345
Mean bets / session: 1.006
Loss multiplier: 1.0229×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 39,8% / 33,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Lottery / JackpotR 2835 wagers · RTP 40,28%

BaccaratR 1102 wagers · RTP 195,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 561 wagers · RTP 180,27%

CrashR 561 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 541 wagers · RTP 500,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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