Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #759 of 1,000

P0201

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 46,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 497

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 503

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 485Deviation -R 4 018

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 503. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 222

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 483 to R 18 706
Finished ahead: 220 / 1,000 (22,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #759 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,88% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.71
Mean bets / session: 4.455
Loss multiplier: 1.0392×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 53,4% / 73,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 10 52046 wagers · RTP 125,15%

BlackjackR 8 29537 wagers · RTP 113,98%

European RouletteR 7 32130 wagers · RTP 27,37%

American RouletteR 3 25413 wagers · RTP 89,49%

BaccaratR 3 21013 wagers · RTP 111,41%

CrashR 2 28510 wagers · RTP 84,19%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 24810 wagers · RTP 10,28%

Lottery / JackpotR 2 20022 wagers · RTP 18,18%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 11810 wagers · RTP 111,76%

Virtual Sports BettingR 7804 wagers · RTP 88,86%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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