Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #897 of 1,000

P0202

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 3,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 174

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 826

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 140Deviation -R 7 686

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 826. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 681

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 697 to R 14 057
Finished ahead: 207 / 1,000 (20,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #782 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,62% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.992
Mean bets / session: 4.89
Loss multiplier: 1.0266×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 44,0% / 63,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 5 28251 wagers · RTP 29,70%

BlackjackR 4 66346 wagers · RTP 104,51%

Craps / DiceR 3 73036 wagers · RTP 89,87%

Lottery / JackpotR 2 01132 wagers · RTP 48,23%

BaccaratR 2 00717 wagers · RTP 89,94%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 76013 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 41517 wagers · RTP 62,69%

CrashR 1 32614 wagers · RTP 56,94%

European RouletteR 1 22111 wagers · RTP 53,73%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 19611 wagers · RTP 76,70%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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