Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #741 of 1,000

P0203

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 28,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 870

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 130

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 315Deviation -R 3 815

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 130. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 740

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 672 to R 14 077
Finished ahead: 201 / 1,000 (20,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #687 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,38% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.637
Mean bets / session: 3.205
Loss multiplier: 1.0115×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 47,9% / 64,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 7 40438 wagers · RTP 110,17%

Craps / DiceR 5 24427 wagers · RTP 85,85%

American RouletteR 3 36317 wagers · RTP 101,78%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 65214 wagers · RTP 9,43%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 8819 wagers · RTP 112,99%

BaccaratR 1 4587 wagers · RTP 46,23%

European RouletteR 1 3026 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 1 1075 wagers · RTP 21,12%

Three-Reel SlotR 9345 wagers · RTP 48,18%

Lottery / JackpotR 8008 wagers · RTP 150,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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