Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #657 of 1,000

P0204

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 14,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 200

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 800

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 552Deviation -R 3 248

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 800. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 196

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 514 to R 7 875
Finished ahead: 196 / 1,000 (19,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #566 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,26% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.668
Mean bets / session: 3.544
Loss multiplier: 1.0236×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 48,6% / 78,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 3 03829 wagers · RTP 104,41%

BaccaratR 2 52423 wagers · RTP 82,51%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 78618 wagers · RTP 42,39%

BlackjackR 1 63916 wagers · RTP 63,39%

CrashR 1 56815 wagers · RTP 56,07%

American RouletteR 1 27212 wagers · RTP 65,72%

European RouletteR 9199 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 9009 wagers · RTP 75,78%

Lottery / JackpotR 7858 wagers · RTP 127,39%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6517 wagers · RTP 128,11%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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