Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #59 of 1,000

P0205

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 90,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 17 949

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 7 949

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 534Deviation R 9 482

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 7 949. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 143

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 443 to R 16 421
Finished ahead: 230 / 1,000 (23,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #709 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,42% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.33
Mean bets / session: 5.188
Loss multiplier: 1.026×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 48,3% / 49,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 10 70836 wagers · RTP 93,69%

BlackjackR 6 76723 wagers · RTP 96,96%

Three-Reel SlotR 5 93324 wagers · RTP 330,84%

CrashR 4 78514 wagers · RTP 73,68%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 91913 wagers · RTP 44,45%

BaccaratR 3 84912 wagers · RTP 116,91%

American RouletteR 3 5289 wagers · RTP 102,13%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 50015 wagers · RTP 26,67%

European RouletteR 1 2665 wagers · RTP 95,58%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 9994 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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