Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #748 of 1,000

P0206

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 37,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 792

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 208

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 923Deviation -R 4 285

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 208. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 539

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 862 to R 14 184
Finished ahead: 228 / 1,000 (22,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #730 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,63% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.733
Mean bets / session: 4.736
Loss multiplier: 1.0125×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 45,5% / 47,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 10142 wagers · RTP 28,37%

Craps / DiceR 4 69241 wagers · RTP 90,07%

BlackjackR 4 38237 wagers · RTP 120,23%

BaccaratR 2 48519 wagers · RTP 94,54%

European RouletteR 2 06917 wagers · RTP 67,76%

CrashR 1 59213 wagers · RTP 87,53%

American RouletteR 1 41611 wagers · RTP 64,19%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 40212 wagers · RTP 134,99%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 16912 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 8447 wagers · RTP 125,12%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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