Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #679 of 1,000

P0207

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 64,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 861

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 139

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 575Deviation -R 2 563

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 139. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 660

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 569 to R 20 043
Finished ahead: 203 / 1,000 (20,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #780 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,64% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.936
Mean bets / session: 5.373
Loss multiplier: 1.0527×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 47,5% / 73,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 16 07776 wagers · RTP 97,19%

BlackjackR 12 06460 wagers · RTP 101,49%

CrashR 4 72222 wagers · RTP 200,39%

BaccaratR 4 41625 wagers · RTP 85,15%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 85020 wagers · RTP 70,22%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 80020 wagers · RTP 38,55%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 40418 wagers · RTP 63,67%

European RouletteR 3 18315 wagers · RTP 10,24%

American RouletteR 1 2886 wagers · RTP 148,37%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 00010 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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