Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #845 of 1,000

P0208

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 15,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 668

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 332

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 305Deviation -R 6 026

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 332. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 919

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 064 to R 16 735
Finished ahead: 205 / 1,000 (20,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #749 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,99% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.499
Mean bets / session: 5.628
Loss multiplier: 1.0112×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 52,6% / 52,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 8 87850 wagers · RTP 88,88%

Craps / DiceR 6 39535 wagers · RTP 98,51%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6 01133 wagers · RTP 68,24%

CrashR 3 30617 wagers · RTP 115,69%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 27420 wagers · RTP 91,40%

European RouletteR 2 16215 wagers · RTP 69,80%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 3487 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 1 3466 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 06311 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 1 0305 wagers · RTP 83,68%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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