Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #715 of 1,000

P0209

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 68,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 342

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 658

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 5 316Deviation R 658

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 658. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 482

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 944 to R 13 235
Finished ahead: 141 / 1,000 (14,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #811 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,48% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.9
Mean bets / session: 5.037
Loss multiplier: 1.0009×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 41,2% / 60,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 12 75043 wagers · RTP 102,32%

Craps / DiceR 12 39441 wagers · RTP 38,24%

CrashR 10 32336 wagers · RTP 47,50%

American RouletteR 4 95618 wagers · RTP 82,45%

BaccaratR 4 67013 wagers · RTP 298,33%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 08818 wagers · RTP 57,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 82518 wagers · RTP 41,48%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 56713 wagers · RTP 82,63%

European RouletteR 3 20212 wagers · RTP 270,02%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 70017 wagers · RTP 35,29%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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