Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #207 of 1,000

P0210

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 86,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 108

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 108

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 568Deviation R 1 677

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 108. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 252

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 625 to R 4 821
Finished ahead: 135 / 1,000 (13,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #717 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,32% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.561
Mean bets / session: 5.164
Loss multiplier: 1.0764×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 44,2% / 70,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 5 57341 wagers · RTP 114,46%

BlackjackR 5 20036 wagers · RTP 125,92%

Lottery / JackpotR 2 80028 wagers · RTP 7,14%

American RouletteR 2 62117 wagers · RTP 120,34%

BaccaratR 2 41417 wagers · RTP 103,36%

CrashR 2 31915 wagers · RTP 108,86%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 77512 wagers · RTP 216,92%

European RouletteR 1 3279 wagers · RTP 63,75%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0588 wagers · RTP 6,47%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 8705 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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