Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #596 of 1,000

P0211

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 52,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 191

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 809

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 835Deviation -R 1 973

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 809. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 963

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 532 to R 6 704
Finished ahead: 188 / 1,000 (18,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #631 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,23% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.306
Mean bets / session: 5.697
Loss multiplier: 1.0177×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 41,6% / 72,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 4 19041 wagers · RTP 111,05%

Craps / DiceR 3 34933 wagers · RTP 100,24%

European RouletteR 2 34023 wagers · RTP 24,96%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 83718 wagers · RTP 85,05%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 42414 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 1 35214 wagers · RTP 202,64%

BaccaratR 1 14111 wagers · RTP 33,83%

Lottery / JackpotR 6657 wagers · RTP 30,08%

Three-Reel SlotR 4905 wagers · RTP 91,84%

American RouletteR 3223 wagers · RTP 114,60%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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