Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #114 of 1,000

P0212

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 86,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 12 154

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 2 154

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 093Deviation R 3 247

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 2 154. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 481

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 372 to R 7 646
Finished ahead: 216 / 1,000 (21,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #674 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,64% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.767
Mean bets / session: 4.253
Loss multiplier: 1.012×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 54,3% / 59,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 5 18040 wagers · RTP 67,48%

Craps / DiceR 5 08139 wagers · RTP 121,59%

American RouletteR 4 96339 wagers · RTP 111,00%

European RouletteR 2 88824 wagers · RTP 158,17%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 25219 wagers · RTP 54,95%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 96515 wagers · RTP 144,15%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 39314 wagers · RTP 66,76%

CrashR 1 18610 wagers · RTP 180,44%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 6595 wagers · RTP 125,34%

BaccaratR 5765 wagers · RTP 100,81%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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