Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #801 of 1,000

P0213

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 21,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 665

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 335

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 151Deviation -R 5 185

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 335. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 805

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 477 to R 14 053
Finished ahead: 191 / 1,000 (19,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #744 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,20% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.425
Mean bets / session: 5.922
Loss multiplier: 1.0091×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 39,2% / 70,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 9 59366 wagers · RTP 90,74%

Craps / DiceR 6 91242 wagers · RTP 88,89%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 54024 wagers · RTP 43,93%

BaccaratR 2 89519 wagers · RTP 127,80%

American RouletteR 2 21417 wagers · RTP 65,90%

European RouletteR 2 17514 wagers · RTP 50,71%

CrashR 2 01212 wagers · RTP 66,08%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 4849 wagers · RTP 107,68%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 39014 wagers · RTP 28,78%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 2098 wagers · RTP 90,66%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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