Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #682 of 1,000

P0214

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 60,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 763

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 237

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 432Deviation -R 2 806

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 237. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 269

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 203 to R 15 734
Finished ahead: 199 / 1,000 (19,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #762 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,50% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.85
Mean bets / session: 5.391
Loss multiplier: 1.0439×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 47,8% / 61,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 11 90760 wagers · RTP 104,54%

BlackjackR 9 57448 wagers · RTP 100,63%

BaccaratR 8 20542 wagers · RTP 104,79%

American RouletteR 5 04526 wagers · RTP 113,40%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 13016 wagers · RTP 4,82%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 02714 wagers · RTP 78,59%

CrashR 2 88815 wagers · RTP 56,64%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 40613 wagers · RTP 145,63%

European RouletteR 2 18611 wagers · RTP 25,62%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 28,57%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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