Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #169 of 1,000

P0215

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 83,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 435

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 435

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 286Deviation R 2 722

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 435. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 016

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 778 to R 10 048
Finished ahead: 184 / 1,000 (18,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #751 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,14% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.727
Mean bets / session: 4.674
Loss multiplier: 1.0086×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 58,7% / 58,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 10 33041 wagers · RTP 99,33%

Craps / DiceR 8 19431 wagers · RTP 106,69%

Three-Reel SlotR 6 62428 wagers · RTP 101,00%

CrashR 4 00716 wagers · RTP 81,25%

American RouletteR 3 88715 wagers · RTP 129,20%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 38114 wagers · RTP 95,45%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 04312 wagers · RTP 166,14%

BaccaratR 2 3549 wagers · RTP 126,08%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 90019 wagers · RTP 10,53%

European RouletteR 1 2665 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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